Monday, December 13, 2010

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Do not confuse public opinion and public opinion

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The recent petition calling for the resignation of Prime Minister of Quebec initially made me smile. For once the people become politicized and does something a bit specific to signify his disapproval, he should not quibble about the technical considerations.

As an observer of Quebec society, the same petition me then just fascinated. We must admit that seeing a counter run-time (almost) real on a website created for the occasion is quite spectacular. Besides the 'Spin' supporters on social networks (hello Audrey!) And the many reports and required daily reporting stations rolling news from traditional media.

Finally, I am writing this petition today. Not so much to decry the fact that the action was unjustified or deserved. Not so much for discourse consequences of these electronic signatures on the perception of Quebec politicians. But mostly to put the record straight on the design of public opinion.

It is true that More and more Quebecers have access to the Internet (as would our friends Sportnographe). According to the survey CEFRIO November 2010, nearly 80% of Quebecers have used the Internet during the last week. I even started to think that fewer people used their home phone during the same period! It is tempting to generalize the opinions of Internet users than the general population. However, without a control sample (for which we make sure to weigh some sub-groups), it is dangerous to extrapolate too quickly. Besides the results of the partial Kamouraska-Temiscouata did not match exactly what the signatories had hoped following the success of their approach.

But how to explain this result? After the concept of the silent majority, welcome to the minority of rowdy! (Which alas, I realize part). Indeed, not only is not everyone who is active on the Internet but the research also showed that the content generators are much less likely than those who view the same content (there is even well below the famous 80-20).

Although to update his Facebook profile can be considered as content generation, say that the influence of this gesture on the community is quite limited. Which brings us to the fact that not everyone has the same influence on the Web (see Section about it). If you are a supporter of the Parti Quebecois, it is likely that you will be more attentive and receptive to promoting your new allegiance (selective perception). Better yet, if your relationship share your views, you will feel even more acute than everyone thinks like you.

In conclusion
Despite their popularity, social media may not naturally (without mathematical adjustment) accurately represent public opinion. That said, brand managers (and Mr. Charest is a brand) need to monitor conversations on the web come to see and apprehend phenomena.

The best strategy would then be to hold together the two approaches, the detection of social networks as a scout detector and emerging phenomena and conducting surveys that would give a better reading of the scope, understanding and impact of a phenomenon in our society.


PS Considering you'll probably be overwhelmed by the holidays, the blog will not be back until January 2011.

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